Score a new market using the same criteria for every option: reachable demand, market size, competitive pressure, margin potential, capability fit, capital required, time to revenue, reversibility and major risks. Weight the criteria before seeing the scores and record the assumptions behind each number.
Key points
- Use one scorecard across all opportunities so attractive stories do not receive different rules.
- Score reachable demand, not only headline market size.
- Capability fit can matter as much as market attractiveness.
- A high total score should not hide one risk that could stop the opportunity entirely.
Choose the criteria before scoring the opportunities
Decide what matters to the business: demand, margin, strategic fit, capital, speed, competition, regulatory burden, customer access or another factor.
Set the weights before management sees the final scores. Changing weights afterward to favor a preferred idea destroys the value of the exercise.
Make every score traceable to a reason
A “4 out of 5” for demand should have a note explaining the data behind it. That note may include customer enquiries, market size, search behavior, competitor growth or primary research.
When the source is weak, lower the confidence and label the score as uncertain.
Separate attractiveness from ability to win
A growing market can be hard to enter. Score market attractiveness separately from the company’s ability to compete through relationships, brand, distribution, skills, cost position or intellectual property.
This can reveal a smaller market where the business has a stronger right to win.
Use stop conditions as well as scores
Some risks should operate as gates. A licensing barrier, impossible unit economics or lack of customer access may be more important than a high weighted average.
List those stop conditions before the final recommendation so management can see which unknowns must be resolved first.
Questions people ask before they act
What criteria should a market opportunity scorecard include?
Common criteria include demand, reachable market size, competition, margin, capability fit, capital required, time to revenue, strategic value, reversibility and major risks.
How many market opportunities can be compared?
Any number can be scored, but the research burden rises quickly. A shortlist of three to six realistic options is usually easier to investigate properly.
Should all criteria have equal weight?
Not necessarily. Weight them according to the company’s priorities and constraints, and set the weights before reviewing the final scores.
What if two opportunities have similar scores?
Use sensitivity testing and examine the few criteria driving the difference. A small pilot or additional research may be more useful than forcing a winner from weak data.
Primary data and official references
These sources are useful for checking market size, business activity, economic conditions and the rules that shape a commercial decision.
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